Portfolio Summary
Total Deployed Capital
$135M
Prob-Weighted Gross MOIC (5-yr)
—
Prob-Weighted LP Net MOIC (5-yr)
—
Prob-Weighted Gross IRR (5-yr)
—
Prob-Weighted LP Net IRR (5-yr)
—
Scenario Probability Weights
Adjust probabilities below. Weights are constrained to sum to 100%.
Position-Level Exit Valuations
Override exit valuations ($B) for each position and scenario. Changes recalculate all metrics in real-time.
| Company | Type | FMV ($M) | Entry Val | Bear Exit ($B) | Base Exit ($B) | Bull Exit ($B) | Bear MOIC | Base MOIC | Bull MOIC |
|---|
Scenario Analysis
Portfolio Return Waterfall — Probability-Weighted P&L ($M)
Gross MOIC by Scenario (5-Year)
Position Concentration by Company
Detailed Scenario Results
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull | Prob-Weighted |
|---|
Notes & Assumptions
Fund Structure
- Anti Fund Growth I — $150M growth fund
- $132.6M deployed across 15 positions (12 distinct companies)
- Portfolio split: $36.45M warehoused positions (7), $96.15M new positions (8)
- Fee structure: 2% annual management fee on committed capital, 20% carried interest above 1.0x
- 5-year investment horizon is the default return view
Scenario Probabilities
- Default probability weights over 5 years: Bear 10% / Base 45% / Bull 45%
- Weights are adjustable via sliders above
- Catastrophic case has been excluded from this model — considered unlikely over a diversified growth portfolio at this stage
Position Entry Assumptions
- Warehoused positions (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Databricks, Erebor, Cognition, Etched) are held at current/recent market valuations
- Anthropic — held at $380B valuation (Series G, Feb 2026); no unrealized gain assumed on warehoused position
- OpenAI — warehoused at $840B; additional position entered at $830B (next round)
- Erebor — warehoused held at $4.35B; no unrealized gain assumed. Additional position to be bought at next round (~$8B)
- Etched — warehoused at $5B (Series B); additional position to be bought at next round (~$10B)
- Flock Safety — next round entry at $8.1B (user-specified exact price)
- Modal — next round entry estimated at $2.5–3B (midpoint $2.75B used)
- Merge Labs — $5–10M block into next round (midpoint $7.5M used, ~$2.5B Series A entry)
- Anduril — new position at $60B (Series H, double the $30.5B Series G from June 2025)
- Waymo — new position at $126B valuation
Key Company Metrics (as of Mar 2026)
- OpenAI — $25B annualized run rate (Feb 2026); $13.1B actual 2025 revenue. Internal forecasts: $30B (2026E), $62B (2027E), $125B (2029E). Gross margins compressed to 33% in 2025 due to 4x inference cost increase. Cumulative cash burn forecast at $665B through 2030; not FCF positive until 2030. IPO intended H2 2026.
- Anthropic — $14B ARR (Feb 2026); $4.5B actual 2025 revenue ($9B ARR exit rate). Gross margins improved from -94% (2024) to 40% (2025), targeting 77% by 2028. EBITDA loss of $5.2B in 2025. Targeting FCF positive by 2027. Bull case: $70B revenue, $17B cash flow by 2028. 86% enterprise revenue; 9 customers >$100M/yr.
- SpaceX — $15.5B revenue in 2025; ~$8B EBITDA. Starlink $10.4B (67% of rev). 9.2M Starlink subscribers. IPO expected mid-June 2026 targeting $1.5T valuation.
- Anduril — $2.22B FY2025 revenue (137% YoY); $4.31B FY2026E per Series H LRP. Gross margins ~38%. EBITDA positive by 2030 ($454M at 3% margin). Revenue target: $15.9B by 2030. Source: Anduril Series H Forward Financial Plan (Feb 2026).
- Etched — Series B model (Nov 2025): Base case $611M (2026) → $66.2B (2029). Bear: $134M → $43.2B. Bull: $1.2B → $101B. Gross margins 39% → 57% as production scales. Source: Etched Series B Financial Model.
- Databricks — $5.4B ARR (Jan 2026), 65% YoY growth. $1.4B AI product revenue. 800+ customers >$1M ARR. NRR >140%. FCF positive. Valued at $134B.
- Cognition — $275M ARR. Enterprise autonomous coding agent (Devin). Competitive with Claude Code, GitHub Copilot, Cursor/Windsurf.
- Flock Safety — $500M ARR. Public safety / ALPR technology with municipality and commercial adoption.
- Modal — $160M ARR. Serverless cloud infrastructure for AI/ML workloads.
Data Sources
- OpenAI financials: Internal documents reported by The Information (Jan/Feb 2026), CNBC (Feb 2026), WSJ, Fortune, Reuters, HSBC Global Research
- Anthropic financials: Internal financials reported by The Information (Jan 2026), TechCrunch, Fortune, Deep Research Global
- Anduril: Series H Forward Financial Plan (Feb 2026) — direct company data
- Etched: Series B Financial Model (Nov 2025) — direct company data
- SpaceX, Databricks, Waymo, others: Public reporting, secondary market data, and company disclosures
- This model is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Forward projections are based on internal company forecasts and public reporting as of March 2026 and are subject to material change.